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Power and gas spread monitor

Build any spread from two to four EOX power and natural gas curves, from a basis to a spark spread or a market heat rate, and see where every tenor sits against its own history. Winter-summer and calendar spreads too.

What goes in, what comes out

The spread

  • Two to four legs: a power market's on- or off-peak curve, or a gas location
  • A weight on each leg: −1 for a basis, a heat rate to turn gas into $/MWh for a spark spread
  • Or the ratio of two legs, such as power over gas for a market heat rate
  • Month by month, winter against the summer before it, or one calendar year against the next
  • One to five years of history to rank it against

The results

  • The spread for each coming month, with each leg's price
  • Each tenor today against the same tenor on every past curve date: average, low, high, the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles, and today's percentile
  • The next month's spread on every past curve date, against its range, as a chart
  • The next winter-summer and calendar spreads, each against its own history

Spreads use the curves your subscription covers, under the same month-end and trial rules as the data itself.

Example: a spark spread at a 7.0 heat rate

Months aheadMonthToday3-year average10%90%Percentile
12027-0118.4015.258.1024.6068%
22027-0216.9514.707.8523.1563%
32027-039.8011.354.2018.9039%

Values are illustrative.

Use it from

Python

from eoxlive import EOX
eox = EOX("YOUR_KEY")
legs = [{"dataset": "power", "iso": "ISO1", "curve": "HUB1", "block": "on", "weight": 1},
        {"dataset": "natural_gas", "curve": "GAS1", "weight": -7.0}]
s = eox.spreads(legs, months=24, years=3)
s["months"]; s["history"]                                                # by month, and each tenor ranked
eox.spreads([{"dataset": "natural_gas", "curve": "GAS1"}], structure="winter_summer")["pairs"]

REST

curl -X POST -H "X-API-Key: YOUR_KEY" -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"legs": [{"dataset": "natural_gas", "curve": "GAS1"}], "structure": "calendar"}' \
  "https://api.eoxlive.com/v1/analytics/spreads"

Or in the browser, on the Market analysis page under Valuation, signed in with your EOX account.

Questions

What does the percentile mean?
Where today's value of a tenor sits among that tenor's values on every past curve date in the history you choose: 90% means it has been lower 90% of the time.
How are winter-summer spreads measured?
The next winter (November to March) less the summer before it (April to October), each a simple average of its months, for the next storage year that hasn't begun.
Which curves can I combine?
Any power on- or off-peak curve and any natural gas location in your subscription, with weights you choose.
Is this a forecast?
No. It shows where a spread on today's curves sits against its own past.

Included with your subscription. The tools use the curves, vols and correlations your subscription already covers, under the same entitlements, and are never charged for separately. Results are for information only; values shown on this page are illustrative.

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